Key events
That’s all for now!
Thank you for participating in our latest live conversation ahead of the November US midterm elections.
We’ve been hosting a series of reader Q&As leading up to the midterms, and we’ll be back with one more conversation before US voters head to the polls – this time on how immigration policies and ICE have been shaping America.
Join us on 22 October at 12pm ET for a conversation with immigration reporters Maanvi Singh and José Olivares, along with Los Angeles correspondent Sam Levin, will take your questions. Send us your questions.
To keep up with our coverage of the midterms sign up to the Stakes newsletter here and bookmark our US midterm elections page.
Why are prices so high? Stateside shares more
The vast majority of Americans say they are struggling to pay for gas and groceries, and are cutting back on luxuries.
Today, Stateside podcast hosts Kai Wright and Carter Sherman published an episode with Guardian columnist and former labor secretary Robert Reich explaining why readers may be feeling the pinch.
From breaking down the market factors behind the cost of a $16 cheesesteak, to explaining why AI is playing into the price of a Nintendo Switch 2, Reich reveals who you should point the finger at in this economy.
What is your personal ‘recession indicator’?
Nearly two-thirds of Americans think the US is experiencing a recession, according to a new Harris Poll conducted for the Guardian.
We want to hear from Americans: do you feel like the US is experiencing a recession? What is your so-called personal “recession indicator”, or a signal in your everyday life that points to an incoming economic slump? Tell us about your experience in the form below.
How will the rising interest rates affect an already challenging housing market?
Kathleen OKeefe, Ringwood, NJ asks in a callout question: How will the rising interest rates affect an already challenging housing market?
Lauren: Interest rates have a direct impact on mortgage rates and other loans as it defines how much it costs to borrow money. At the beginning of the pandemic, the US Federal Reserve set interest rates to zero, bringing mortgage rates down to historic lows.This is why we saw a surge of activity in the housing market from 2020 to 2022. At the end of that period, the Fed started to bring interest rates up, bringing mortgage rates to the averages that we see today (over 7% for a 30-year mortgage). This has brought the housing market to a standstill, and even though interest rates are still lower than its most recent peak in 2023, mortgage rates haven’t really come down all that much. It was only this past February that the rate for a 30-year mortgage went below 6% for the first time since September 2022, and it’s only kept climbing.
How is Trump faring with independent voters after two years?
FetchCB001 asks: US politics is so polarised, you have a group who will always vote Republican regardless and a group who will never regardless. This tends to mean that elections are decided by the floaters. Is there any indication of how these voters have been impacted by the first two years of Trump 2?
Michael: Approval from independent voters for Trump’s presidency has declined throughout his second term; 43% of independent voters supported him during his presidential campaign in 2024. By April 2026, that support declined to 26%. A September 2026 YouGov survey found that 23% of independents approve of Trump, compared with 79% of Republicans and 2% of Democrats. A September poll conducted by Fox News found 73% saying Trump has made the economy worse, compared to 95% of Democrats and 26% of Republicans.
Voters wait for a polling station to open on the first day of early voting in the state, in Raleigh, North Carolina, US, October 15, 2026. Photograph: Jonathan Drake/Reuters
Gaya: Our polling with Harris earlier this summer captured the angst and frustration that rural American voters are feeling in today’s economy, often more so than their urban and suburban counterparts. Here’s what we found about rural voters :
– 70% say that the federal government has made the affordability crisis either significantly or somewhat worse in 2026
– 64% believe that the national economy is getting worse; 57% believe that their local economy is getting worse
– Nearly half believe that their financial security is getting worse
– 46% say they are just getting by, while 29% say they are struggling to make ends meet
– 57% say they have trouble affording groceries, compared to 55% and 47% of urban and suburban voters
How seriously does Trump’s base take his promises of cash if he wins the midterms?
Mr_202: I’d love to know how seriously Trump’s base take his promises of bribes and sunny uplands. The DOGE cheques, the tariff rebates, the cheques in the post if he wins the midterms. Do these people honestly believe the money will come and if not, do they care that it’s being promised? Do they think they’re getting half price, commandeered Venezuelan oil any time soon? Thank you for your attention to this matter and keep bringing the cold hard truths.
Heather: About one million Americans should start seeing checks of about $500 each related to what the White House called Obamacare refunds before they go to the polls. (Some reports suggest that money is coming from funds previously used to support healthcare signup and the website that it uses.) Trump has also promised 20 million seniors a $90 check for Medicare fees. These appear to be happening, but the promised DOGE and tariffs rebates, as you note, never did. It’s unclear how he would fund a promise to give voters $5,000 after the midterms if Republicans win, especially because few lawmakers in his party have publicly supported that idea. While it’s hard to evaluate where the diehard “Forever Trumpers” are on believing what the President says, Republicans’ optimism about the economy overall has taken a nosedive. In February 2025, 39% of Republicans said the economy was getting better and by February 2026 that optimism was up to 49%. In our latest Harris poll, that number dropped to 28%.
Which utility has seen the biggest surge under Trump?
From an Instagram user: What utility has seen the biggest surge in pricing since 2nd Trump administration?
Gaya: We can answer this by looking at data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Utility gas services increased at an annual rate of 5% this month, slightly more than the 4.4% increase in electricity. Last year, in Trump’s first September in office, gas services had increased by 11.7% compared to the year before, while electricity increased by 5.1%.
Looking more broadly at energy commodities — which don’t necessarily show up as a monthly bill, but can still affect overall household expenses — we can see that fuel oil, which is used to heat homes and offices, increased by 74.2% compared to the year before. (In comparison, fuel oil had increased by just 4.1% in the September 2025 report).
Do lower-income Americans tend to vote Republican?
Grauniad9999: A question my 16-year-old asked me that I couldn’t answer well. Why is support for conservative parties in the UK mostly comprised of the well-off, where in the US the equivalent is mostly supported by poorer, non-college folks?
Michael: I think that’s more perception than reality, especially as the Democratic Party has been grappling with criticism of losing working class support, while Republicans and the Trump administration have pushed narratives that working class, including union members have been increasingly supportive of Trump, but that is not the case based on exit polls. Pew Research found in 2024 that lower income, lower middle income, and high income voters leaned Democrat, while upper middle and middle income voters leaned Republican.
Politicians say the US economy is growing – is it actually?
Clifford Weiler, San Diego, CA asks in a callout question: Politicians cite how the economy is improving, but how is the rising rate of inflation taken into account?
Lauren: What growth in the economy means really depends on who you’re talking to. For economists, economic growth is measured by gross domestic product (GDP), which is an equation adding together consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. A little inflation can actually stimulate further growth, as long as it doesn’t lead to a pullback in spending. That’s why the US Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate is 2% (something that hasn’t been seen since January 2021 – for context, it was 3.7% in September).
For both economists and politicians, inflation really only becomes a bad thing when it starts to impact consumer spending. When prices get too high and consumers start spending less money, the wheels of the economy can start to slow. Even though inflation has been high, and consumers are anxious about the economy, we haven’t yet seen a large pullback in spending that would cause alarm over growth.
Lauren continues: For many goods and services, economists actually think prices going down as a bad thing for the overall economy that can trigger a downtown. There are some major exceptions, energy prices being a big one. If the US and Iran ever reach a peace deal, and oil transportation and reduction goes back to normal, gas prices will go down. This is what we saw in 2022, once the energy market recalibrated for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After high periods of inflation, certain food prices can also go down. The cost of eggs is about 20% lower than they were a year ago, when prices were high because of avian-flu related shortages.
For both economists and politicians, inflation really only becomes a bad thing when it starts to impact consumer spending. When prices get too high and consumers start spending less money, the wheels of the economy can start to slow. Even though inflation has been high, and consumers are anxious about the economy, we haven’t yet seen a large pullback in spending that would cause alarm over growth.
Are moderate Republican candidates distancing themselves from Trump in the face of his unpopular policies?
NorthLondonIsRed asks: For years, more moderate Republicans seemed to have little choice but to align with Trump to win their primaries and general elections. With the Iran war and rising prices straining many voters, could the incentives now flip, so that distancing themselves from Trump becomes the safer path in November? And are any Republicans already making that calculation?
Michael: Yes, there have been several Republican candidates who have attempted to distance themselves from Trump, given his low approval ratings that have been in the 30s. In September, Republican Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar released an ad saying Trump’s immigration policies have gone too far.
“In July, 50% of the 50,000 people that were detained had no criminal record. Be careful what your advisers are telling you about immigration policy,” she said in the ad.
In California, Republican Congresswoman Young Kim has dropped references to Trump from her campaign website and digital materials, as she faces a tight re-election battle.
Other candidates have removed mentions of focuses of Trump from campaign websites, such as Florida Republican Governor candidate Byron Donalds, but denied the changes were a dig at Trump.
Heather: Another place we’re seeing some Republicans break with Trump is on tariffs, which is a direct response to the anger over their impacts. Trump’s former VP Mike Pence (who is not running for anything, but still gets an ear in some Washington circles) has been the loudest voice on this in the party, and Michigan’s Mike Rogers recently issued an ad calling for an end to the tariff war with Canada.
