Powell confirms Fed would have cut interest rates by now were it not for Trump’s tariffs
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said earlier this morning that the central bank would likely have already cut interest rates this year had it not been for the economic shock caused by Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
When asked if Trump’s tariffs on imported goods held up the Fed’s plan to cut interest rates, Powell replied:
I think that’s right.
Speaking at a central banking conference in Portugal, he went on:
In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs.
In response, Trump attacked Powell once again during his tour of the controversial new detention facility in Florida this morning. Asked if he intended to announce his pick for the next Fed chair, Trump said: “Anybody would be better than Jay Powell.”
Key events
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Trump announces Israel has agreed to 60-day ceasefire in Gaza
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Powell confirms Fed would have cut interest rates by now were it not for Trump’s tariffs
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The day so far
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US halts some missile shipments to Ukraine over low stockpiles – Politico
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Pro-Palestinian Georgetown student can remain free, US appeals court rules
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Trump and Musk’s feud blows up again with threats of Doge and deportation
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Trump team threatens to prosecute CNN over reporting on Ice-tracking app
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Trump administration raises possibility of stripping Zohran Mamdani of US citizenship
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Schumer forces name change of Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ moments before Senate approval
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Private prison firms looking at renovating and rebuilding Alcatraz, says Trump
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USAID ends operations as state department abandons aid for trade
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AOC says ‘Vance was the deciding vote to cut Medicaid across the country’
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Trump’s tax bill – explained
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Collins cites Medicaid cuts as ‘primary’ reason for her no vote
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‘Music to my ears’: Trump welcomes Senate passage of ‘big, beautiful bill’
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‘Your kids, your job, and your elderly relatives don’t matter’: DNC chair slams GOP passage of Trump’s bill
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House GOP leaders reaffirm commitment to pass Trump’s bill by 4 July
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Bill heads to back to House where GOP wafer-thin majority faces high-stakes vote
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Senate narrowly passes ‘big, beautiful bill’ after JD Vance casts tie-breaking vote
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‘Anybody would be better than Jay Powell,’ says Trump as he keeps up attacks on Fed chair over interest rates
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First detainees at ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ expected tomorrow, says DeSantis
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Trump again implies Doge should ‘look at Musk’ and says former buddy ‘should not play that game with me’
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‘Alligator Alcatraz’ will encourage people to ‘deport on their own’, says DeSantis, as he urges other states to create similar facilities
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Trump praises ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ in Florida Everglades
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Trump wavers on 4 July deadline for tax and spending bill
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Trump says ‘Doge is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon’
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‘Vote-a-rama’ sets new record for longest in Senate history after 45 consecutive votes
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Stanford University will cut $140m from its budget, citing ‘federal policy changes’
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AI regulation ban struck from bill with 99-1 vote
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US Senate strikes AI regulation ban from Trump megabill
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Trump officials create searchable national citizenship database
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Musk vows to unseat lawmakers who support Trump’s bill and threatens forming an ‘America Party’ if it passes
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What are some key elements contained within the budget bill?
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Democrats vow to bring ‘amendment after amendment to the floor’
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US Senate votes on amendments to Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’
Closing summary
Our live coverage is ending now. In the meantime, you can find all of our live US politics coverage here. Here is a summary of the key developments from today:
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The Senate passed Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending megabill by the narrowest of margins – 51-50 – with vice-president JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote after three Republicans – Thom Tillis, Rand Paul and Susan Collins – voted no. While the bill has cleared a major hurdle, it’s by no means guaranteed that Trump’s self-imposed 4 July deadline will be met, with a number of Republicans in the House – which passed its version of the bill last month also by a single vote – already vocalising opposition to the Senate’s changes.
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Trump announced on his social media platform that Israel has agreed to a 60-day ceasefire in its war in Gaza and urged Hamas to accept the terms of the agreement. The news comes as Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is scheduled to visit the White House on 7 July.
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Trump toured “Alligator Alcatraz”, a controversial new migrant detention jail in the remote Florida Everglades, and celebrated the harsh conditions that people sent there would experience. Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, and Homeland Security secretary, Kristi Noem, said detainees could arrive at the rapidly constructed facility as soon as tomorrow. Trump later revisited his idea of “renovating and rebuilding Alcatraz”, with a view to reopening the infamous island prison in San Francisco, which has been closed for over 60 years.
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The Pentagon has halted shipments of air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine over concerns that US stockpiles are too low. On Sunday, Moscow fired more than 500 aerial weapons at Ukraine overnight, in a barrage that Kyiv described as the biggest air attack so far of the three-year war.
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USAID will officially stop implementing foreign aid starting today, secretary of state Marco Rubio said. He added that the US’s assistance in the future will be targeted and limited, focusing on trade rather than aid.
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The Trump administration raised the possibility of stripping Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic mayoral candidate for New York City, of his US citizenship over his vocal support for Palestinian rights. Democrat senator Chris Murphy slammed the idea as “racist bullshit”.
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A federal judge has ruled that mass layoffs at the Department of Health and Human Services were likely unlawful. US district judge Melissa DuBose ordered the Trump administration to halt its efforts to downsize and restructure the health agency, granting a preliminary injunction that will block the administration from finalizing or continuing layoffs it began in March. In another court ruling today, a federal judge ordered the Trump administration to release nearly $13m in funding it had promised Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty to continue reporting in countries with restricted press freedoms.
Sixteen states filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration today for ending more than $1bn in mental health grants designed to support students after mass shootings, the Washington Post reports.
The Trump administration ended the grants beginning under a series of policy moves targeting diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, saying schools had misused the funds when they hired mental health providers from diverse backgrounds.
In the lawsuit, the states contend that the education department sent “boilerplate notices to Plaintiffs claiming that their grants conflicted with the Trump Administration’s priorities and would not be continued”.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is pushing members of his caucus to pass the budget bill that the Senate voted on today. Although the House has already voted on Donald Trump’s sweeping spending, the chamber must approve it again with the amendments added by the Senate.
Johnson has urged Republicans to unite and “finish the job” ahead of Trump’s self-imposed 4 July deadline for the budget.
“I’m having lots of discussion with lots of members about lots of ideas, so we’ll see. But we need to move this, this process to a conclusion. And we’re committed to doing that and on as quick a timetable as possible. So, stay tuned,” Johnson said. “I’ve got to play the cards that are dealt to me, and we’re working through that, talking to all members and all caucuses and everybody else. So – but we remain optimistic we’re going to land this plane.”
The Senate passed the spending and tax bill earlier this afternoon after the longest “vote-a-rama” in Senate history.
During an appearance in Florida alongside Donald Trump this afternoon, homeland security secretary Kristi Noem said the administration is weighing suing CNN for publishing a story about ICEBlock, an app that alerts users when immigration agents are nearby.
“We’re going to actually go after them and prosecute them,” Noem told reporters, according to the New York Times.
“This is an app that is publicly available to any iPhone user who wants to download it,” CNN said in a statement. “There is nothing illegal about reporting the existence of this or any other app, nor does such reporting constitute promotion or other endorsement of the app by CNN.”
The White House has confirmed that the United States will halt shipments of air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine over concerns that US stockpiles are too low.
“This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a DOD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement. “The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned – just ask Iran.”
The US has provided Ukraine with more than $66bn in weapons since Russia launched its full-scale invasion into the country in February 2022. The missiles and other munitions the Trump administration is withholding were promised to Ukraine under the Biden administration.
On Sunday, Moscow fired more than 500 aerial weapons at Ukraine overnight, in a barrage that Kyiv described as the biggest air attack so far of the three-year war. You can find all our coverage of Ukraine here.
Trump announces Israel has agreed to 60-day ceasefire in Gaza
Donald Trump announced today on his social media platform that Israel has agreed to a 60-day ceasefire in its war in Gaza and urged Hamas to accept the terms of the agreement.
“The Qataris and Egyptians, who have worked very hard to help bring Peace, will deliver this final proposal. I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better – IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE,” he wrote.
The news comes as Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is scheduled to visit the White House on 7 July.
Last month, Trump similarly announced a ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Iran conflict on his social media platform before either country could confirm they had agreed to the arrangement.
In another court ruling today, a federal judge ordered the Trump administration to release nearly $13m in funding it had promised Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty to continue reporting in countries with restricted press freedoms.
US district judge Royce C Lamberth voiced his disapproval with the Trump administration for similarly delaying funding in April and May.
A federal judge has ruled that mass layoffs at the Department of Health and Human Servies were likely unlawful.
US district judge Melissa DuBose ordered the Trump administration to halt its efforts to downsize and restructure the health agency, granting a preliminary injunction that will block the administration from finalizing or continuing layoffs it began in March.
DuBose said the states who filed suit against the Trump administration had shown “irreparable harm” and were likely to succeed in their case claiming: “HHS’s action was both arbitrary and capricious as well as contrary to law.”
The department stands by its decision “to realign this organization with its core mission and refocus a sprawling bureaucracy that, over time, had become wasteful, inefficient and resistant to change”, HHS spokesperson Andrew Nixon told the Associated Press.
The United States denied visa requests for the Cuba women’s volleyball team ahead of their visit to Puerto Rico to play in the NORCECA Women’s Final Four in Manati.
The Cuban Volleyball Federation told the Associated Press that 12 athletes, a referee and several coaches from the team had their visa requests denied.
“It’s really disappointing not to be able to participate in the competition, which is what I’ve been preparing myself for,” player Laura Suarez said.
In June, the United States added Cuba to a list of 12 countries with entry restrictions. Yesterday, the Trump administration issued a new memo concerning its policy toward the island nation.
Powell confirms Fed would have cut interest rates by now were it not for Trump’s tariffs
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said earlier this morning that the central bank would likely have already cut interest rates this year had it not been for the economic shock caused by Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
When asked if Trump’s tariffs on imported goods held up the Fed’s plan to cut interest rates, Powell replied:
I think that’s right.
Speaking at a central banking conference in Portugal, he went on:
In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs.
In response, Trump attacked Powell once again during his tour of the controversial new detention facility in Florida this morning. Asked if he intended to announce his pick for the next Fed chair, Trump said: “Anybody would be better than Jay Powell.”
The day so far
The Senate passed Trump’s sweeping tax and spending megabill by the narrowest of margins – 51-50 – with vice-president JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote after three Republicans – Thom Tillis, Rand Paul and Susan Collins – voted no. While the bill has cleared a major hurdle, it’s by no means guaranteed that Trump’s self-imposed 4 July deadline will be met, with a number of Republicans in the House – which passed its version of the bill last month also by a single vote – already vocalising opposition to the Senate’s changes. As my colleague Chris Stein highlights, the GOP remains sharply divided between “rightwing fiscal hardliners demanding deeper spending cuts, demanding deep spending cuts, moderates wary of dismantling safety-net programs, and Republicans from Democratic-led states expected to make a stand on a contentious tax provision. Any one of these groups could potentially derail the bill’s passage through a chamber where the GOP can lose no more than three votes.” With all that to come this week (the high-stakes House vote is set for tomorrow), for now this marks a major victory for Trump, who is one step closer to enacting his domestic agenda, implicating everything from tax breaks for the wealthy to building the border wall to slashing Medicaid and SNAP, all the while adding an estimated $3.3tn to the deficit through 2034. At least we don’t have to call it the “one big, beautiful bill” any more.
Elsewhere:
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Trump toured “Alligator Alcatraz”, a controversial new migrant detention jail in the remote Florida Everglades, and celebrated the harsh conditions that people sent there would experience. “You’ll have a lot of people that will deport on their own because they don’t want to end up in an Alligator Alcatraz, or some of these other places,” Florida governor Ron DeSantis said. Both he and Trump urged other states to follow the model and open similar facilities. DeSantis and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said detainees could arrive at the rapidly constructed facility as soon as tomorrow
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Trump then revisited his idea of “renovating and rebuilding Alcatraz”, with a view to reopening the infamous island prison in San Francisco, which has been closed for over 60 years. He posted on Truth Social: “Conceptual work started six months ago, and various prison development firms are looking at doing it with us. Still a little early, but lots of promise!”
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The Pentagon has halted some shipments of air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine over concerns that US stockpiles are too low, Politico reports, citing people familiar with the issue.
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Pro-Palestinian Georgetown University student, Badar Khan Suri, from India, detained by Donald Trump’s administration but then released on a judge’s order, can remain free while fighting deportation efforts, a US appeals court ruled.
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USAID will officially stop implementing foreign aid starting today, secretary of state Marco Rubio said, adding that America’s assistance in the future will be targeted and limited, focusing on trade rather than aid.
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Trump and administration officials threatened to prosecute CNN over what they said was its promotion of a new app that allows users to track and try to avoid Immigrations and Customs Enforcement agents.
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The Trump administration raised the possibility of stripping Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic mayoral candidate for New York City, of his US citizenship over his vocal support for Palestinian rights. Democrat senator Chris Murphy slammed the idea as “racist bullshit”.
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Trump and Elon Musk’s feud reignited this week with the former political allies trading sharp public threats of retribution from Doge to deportation, ending a period of rapprochement between two of the world’s most powerful men.
US halts some missile shipments to Ukraine over low stockpiles – Politico
The Pentagon has halted some shipments of air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine over concerns that US stockpiles are too low, Politico is reporting, citing people familiar with the issue.
“The decision was made in early June to withhold some aid promised to Kyiv under former president Joe Biden but it is only taking effect now as Ukraine is beating back some of the largest Russian barrages of missiles and drones at civilian targets in Kyiv and elsewhere,” the report added.
On Sunday, Moscow fired more than 500 aerial weapons at Ukraine overnight, in a barrage that Kyiv described as the biggest air attack so far of the three-year war. You can find all our coverage of Ukraine here.
Pro-Palestinian Georgetown student can remain free, US appeals court rules
A pro-Palestinian Georgetown University student from India, detained by Donald Trump’s administration but then released on a judge’s order, can remain free while fighting deportation efforts, a US appeals court has ruled.
A three-judge panel of the Richmond, Virginia-based 4th US circuit court of appeals ruled 2-1 against the administration’s request that Badar Khan Suri be returned to immigration detention. The 4th circuit said it found no grounds to overturn the decision by US district judge Patricia Tolliver Giles to order Suri’s release.
“To allow the government to undermine habeas jurisdiction by moving detainees without notice or accountability reduces the writ of habeas corpus to a game of jurisdictional hide-and-seek,” judge James Andrew Wynn wrote on Tuesday.
Suri, 41, was arrested in Virginia in March and then moved by the US government to Texas, where he was released in May after the ruling by Giles. Suri is a postdoctoral fellow at Georgetown’s Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding, part of the Jesuit university’s School of Foreign Service.
The Trump administration has attempted to deport foreign pro-Palestinian student protesters while accusing them of being antisemitic, threats to American foreign policy and extremist sympathizers.
Suri has denied the federal government’s allegations that he spread Palestinian militant propaganda and antisemitism on social media.
Protesters, including some Jewish groups, have said the US government has conflated criticism of Israel’s military assault in Gaza with antisemitism and advocacy for Palestinian rights with support for extremism.
Human rights advocates have raised free speech and due process concerns over the administration’s actions toward these students.
Other pro-Palestinian students who were arrested by the government and subsequently released under judicial orders include Columbia University students Mahmoud Khalil and Mohsen Mahdawi and Tufts University student Rümeysa Öztürk.
Suri’s wife, Mapheze Saleh, is a US citizen. Saleh is from Gaza, according to the Georgetown University website, which said she has written for Al Jazeera and Palestinian media outlets and worked with the foreign ministry in Gaza. Saleh was not arrested.
Trump and Musk’s feud blows up again with threats of Doge and deportation
Nick Robins-Early
Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s feud reignited this week with the former political allies trading sharp public threats of retribution. The blowup, centered around Musk’s opposition to Trump’s signature tax bill as it moves through Congress, ends a period of rapprochement between two of the world’s most powerful men.
Musk posted escalating attacks against the sweeping tax and spending bill – which passed through the Senate earlier today by a single vote, with three Republicans voting no – on his social media platform X late last night, calling the legislation “insane” and vowing to form a new political party if it passed.
In response, Trump claimed he could “look into” deporting the South Africa-born billionaire, while also suggesting he could cut government subsidies for Musk’s companies or set the so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge) on its former leader.
“Doge is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon. Wouldn’t that be terrible?” Trump asked reporters earlier today.
He was later asked by a reporter if he was concerned about his on-again off-again buddy ripping into the bill again and if he was worried Republicans would be swayed by the tech billionaire and his money. The president replied:
I think what’s going to happen is Doge is going to look at Musk, and if Doge looks at Musk we’re going to save a fortune.
Trump added:
I don’t think he should be playing that game with me.
Musk’s attempt to derail the tax bill was a major factor in his falling out with the president last month, and the Tesla CEO’s renewed offensive comes at a sensitive time as Trump seeks to shepherd the legislation through Congress before his self-imposed 4 July deadline.
The fight could test Musk’s political influence over the Republican party as he seeks to peel away votes for the bill, as well as further deteriorate his once-close relationship with Trump.
Trump team threatens to prosecute CNN over reporting on Ice-tracking app
Edward Helmore
Donald Trump and administration officials have threatened CNN over what they said was its promotion of a new app that allows users to track and try to avoid Immigrations and Customs Enforcement agents.
Speaking to reporters in Florida on a trip to visit a new Ice detention center in the Everglades, dubbed “Alligator Alcatraz”, the homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem, said her department and the Department of Justice were looking at prosecuting CNN over its reporting on the app, called IceBlock.
“We’re working with Department of Justice to see if we can prosecute them,” Noem said, “because what they’re doing is actively encouraging people to avoid law enforcement activities and operations. We’re going to actually go after them and prosecute them. What they’re doing is illegal.”
Trump joined in, saying the news network – a frequent target of his ire – should also be prosecuted for what he said were “false reports on the attack on Iran”, referring to the leak of a Pentagon assessment that suggested US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and had probably only set the program back by months.
CNN defended its reporting of the app through a spokesperson, saying:
This is an app that is publicly available to any iPhone user who wants to download it. There is nothing illegal about reporting the existence of this or any other app, nor does such reporting constitute promotion or other endorsement of the app by CNN.
Noem’s comments came hours after Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, also criticized the news outlet for its reporting on the IceBlock app.
“It’s disgusting,” Homan said during an appearance on the rightwing commentator Benny Johnson’s internet show. “I can’t believe we live in a world where the men and women in law enforcement are the bad guys. It’s already a dangerous job.”
Homan had been asked about the app, which was created to report sightings of Ice agents in any given area. Software developer Joshua Aaron recently told CNN that he had launched the app “when I saw what was happening in this country”.
“I wanted to do something to fight back,” Aaron said, telling the network that the administration’s deportation efforts were, to him, reminiscent of Nazi Germany. “We’re literally watching history repeat itself,” Aaron said.
Homan also suggested CNN was complicit in putting federal law enforcement in danger.
“This is horrendous that a national media outlet would be out there trying to forecast law enforcement operations,” he said. “I think DoJ needs to look at this. They’re crossing that line.”
He added: “We need to send a strong message that we need to protect the law enforcement officers.”
