New polling shows likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans, fewer than two weeks until midterm elections
New polling from the New York Times and Siena University shows that likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans running for office by 11 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s approval rating dropped to a new low for this particular survey – 36%.
Notably, according to the Times’ polling, the perception of either party has shifted over the last two years. The number of people who consider Democrats as the party of the working class has grown by five points – from 48% to 53%, while it’s dropped by five points for Republicans – from 45% to 40%.
Key events
Supreme court rebuffs Trump restrictions on medical care for trans inmates for now
The supreme court has refused to allow the Trump administration to immediately deny gender-affirming care for transgender people in federal prisons.
The decision leaves in place a lower-court block on the policy while a legal challenge plays out. It was adopted after an executive order from Donald Trump, who’s taken several steps to roll back transgender rights during his second term.
Two of the supreme court’s six conservative justices, Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, dissented, meaning they would have allowed the policy to be enforced.
The high court has previously allowed other policies for transgender people to move ahead for now, including restrictions on military service, passport sex markers, and state-level bans on trans women and girls athletes from participating on sports teams.
Trump’s January 2025 executive order called on the Bureau of Prisons to revise its medical care policies so federal funds aren’t spent “for the purpose of conforming an inmate’s appearance to that of the opposite sex”.
The new policy would halt surgical and hormonal treatments, and end “social accommodations” like makeup and wigs. Prisons would continue to offer mental health services.
Trans prisoners sued the administration over the policy and, so far, two lower courts have blocked officials from implementing the order as the larger lawsuit over the executive order continues.
Pjotr Sauer
Vladimir Putin ordered the release of an American from a Russian jail as he met Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg today for fresh talks on ending his war in Ukraine, amid increasingly close relations between Moscow and Washington.
Trump had previously asked Putin to free Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old former teacher who had spent more than four years in Russian jails on charges of fighting as a mercenary for Ukraine.
His release appeared to be Moscow’s latest calculated move to bring Trump further into line with Putin’s position on Ukraine, while offering the US president a diplomatic victory before the midterm elections.
Hubbard was released unilaterally by Russia, rather than as part of a prisoner exchange as has often been the case with previous releases of Americans held in the country.
Writing on social media after the release was announced, Trump said it followed a request he had made “directly” to Putin last week.
Witkoff, meanwhile, lavished praise on Putin during their meeting at the grand Constantine Palace in St Petersburg, describing the Russian president as a humanitarian.
“You talk so much about my president, President Trump, being a humanitarian. You are a humanitarian also, sir, and I salute that,” Witkoff told Putin. He also conveyed Trump’s thanks for a deal to resume Russian diesel exports to the US.
The Russian president is wanted by the international criminal court (ICC) as a war criminal, in relation to the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia during the war. More than 17,500 civilians have been confirmed killed in Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to the UN, which says the true toll is likely to be significantly higher.
The warmth of Witkoff’s remarks stood in stark contrast to the increasingly hostile rhetoric directed at Volodymyr Zelenskyy by senior US officials, most notably Trump, who has called for the Ukrainian president to resign and portrayed him as the main obstacle to peace.
Witkoff travelled to Russia from Oslo, where he had met Zelenskyy and European leaders a day earlier in an attempt to inject momentum into stalled negotiations, with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine now in its fifth year.
Witkoff told Putin during a televised portion of their meeting:
We’ve brought some papers. It’s really some ideas, some sort of peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, and you’ll read that at your leisure.
The visit was Witkoff’s ninth to Russia since Trump tasked him with brokering an end to the war.
A White House official has confirmed to the Guardian that Donald Trump’s roundtable at 2.30pm ET will be focused on cybercrime.
The president is “unleashing every available tool to stop foreign-based organized criminal organizations that exploit Americans in cyberspace”, the official said in a statement. “The most vulnerable among us – seniors, children, and low-income families – are disproportionately targeted, with scammers draining life savings, stealing the benefits of years of work, and destroying lives.”
According to the FBI, Americans reported losing almost $21bn to cybercrime and internet scams.
While Donald Trump will be in South Carolina today, his vice-president, JD Vance, will be stumping in Cincinnati, Ohio.
The Buckeye state is home to a must-keep Senate seat for Republicans, where the incumbent, John Husted, is fending off a challenge from former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown – the populist hoping for a comeback.
The state’s gubernatorial competition has also become increasingly bitter. On Tuesday, my colleague Chris Stein reported that the family of Amy Acton, the Democratic candidate for governor of Ohio, is criticizing her Republican opponent Vivek Ramaswamy for using Acton’s estranged mother in a recently released campaign ad.
In the ad, which has circulated among conservatives on social media, Actons’s mother, Donna Arthur, said: “She says she grew up living in a tent. None of that is true. She’s lied her entire life.”
In a Tuesday statement, Acton’s brother, Philip Stearns, said his sister is estranged from her mother, who had married a man that sexually abused Acton when she was 12 years old. He added that Arthur remained in the marriage even after her husband was arrested and her children were taken away from her.
“It’s not surprising that Vivek Ramaswamy has stooped to such a despicable low as to attempt to turn the sexual abuse Amy endured at twelve years old from our birth mother’s husband into a political talking point,” he said in a statement released by Acton’s campaign.
Trump praises UK approval of controversial Jackdaw gasfield in North Sea
Donald Trump has welcomed the news that UK government has approved the controversial Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea.
“Great news for the wealth and prosperity of the United Kingdom, and the wonderful region of Aberdeen. The UK has started drilling in the North Sea, one of the greatest and most prosperous areas of OIL in the World,” the US president wrote on Truth Social.
He added that the UK should go “FULL BLAST”, and the move to resume offshore extraction would “make the UK very wealthy again”.
As my colleagues reported earlier today, Andy Burnham, the UK prime minister, said the Jackdaw project will “protect hundreds of jobs and help keep millions of homes warm this winter”. This comes after fierce opposition from several Labour MPs and environmental groups throughout the country.
Trump has long pushed for Britain to expand oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, instead of relying on wind turbines. He frequently clashed with Burnham’s predecessor, Keir Starmer, who argued that energy sustainability relied on renewable sources and moving away from fossil fuel dependence.
Emma Graham-Harrison
Reporting from Jerusalem
The Israeli military has detained about 80 US, Israeli and British volunteers helping Palestinians harvest olives near Bethlehem, including the New York Democratic congressional nominee Brad Lander, several rabbis and Israel’s former deputy attorney general.
“I’ve been detained by the IDF, along with a group of rabbis and volunteers,” Lander posted from a bus taking him to a police station. “We were simply harvesting olives in a grove near Nahalin in the West Bank. The occupation is a crime under international law. Harvesting olives isn’t a crime under any law I know.”
Lander, who is Jewish and an outspoken critic of the Israeli government, describes himself as a liberal Zionist. He believes in the vision of Israel as a safe, Jewish home, but argues that it cannot be a true democracy while it denies Palestinians their human rights and freedom.
An ally of the New York City mayor, Zohran Mamdani, Lander’s critical approach to Israel was a key factor in his resounding primary victory against Dan Goldman, a prominent supporter of Israel.
He condemns Israel’s continued occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, supported the restriction of US military aid to Israel and believes that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza after the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks amounts to genocide.
Settler militants have unleashed extreme violence on Palestinians attempting to harvest olives from their trees across the occupied West Bank, and anyone accompanying them.
A vicious assault on a US photojournalist and attacks on European diplomats and a French mayor over the weekend drew international condemnation and calls for the Israeli government to crack down on militants.
New polling shows likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans, fewer than two weeks until midterm elections
New polling from the New York Times and Siena University shows that likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans running for office by 11 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s approval rating dropped to a new low for this particular survey – 36%.
Notably, according to the Times’ polling, the perception of either party has shifted over the last two years. The number of people who consider Democrats as the party of the working class has grown by five points – from 48% to 53%, while it’s dropped by five points for Republicans – from 45% to 40%.
Meanwhile, as my colleague Jakub Krupa reports, French president Emmanuel Macron blasted “unacceptable” and “stupid” comments on the protests and riots in France from foreign leaders, accusing them of “campaigning at our expense”.
This comes after Donald Trump has explicitly linked the protests to mass migration, without any evidence to support his claims.
Speaking to reports in Doha, Macron slammed the comments without mentioning any leaders by name. “We saw images generated by artificial intelligence depicting scenes that never actually occurred in France,” he said. “Some people even claimed that we had been overrun by hordes of migrants and Islamists – which is completely false.”
As we bring you more from Steve Witkoff’s meeting in St Petersburg with Russian officials, it’s worth noting that it takes place after a day of talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Norwegian prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, in Oslo.
Trump’s special envoy will relay the proposals discussed on Tuesday – including calls for a trilateral summit between Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in order to hammer out a lasting deal.
Trump, however, appeared skeptical of any progress for peace when speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday. “Russia is a big machine. They just keep grinding forward, and that’s what they’ve done,” the US president said. “We want Zelenskyy to make a deal. He can make a deal … In my opinion, it’s just really just going to get worse.”
Donald Trump will begin his day in Washington, and host a roundtable at the White House at 2.30pm ET.
He’ll then continue his midterm campaign blitz by heading to Clemson, South Carolina, where he’ll rally for Darline Graham – the Republican nominee for US Senate who is hoping to secure a full term for her late brother’s seat. Trump won the Palmetto state by almost 18 points in 2024.
A reminder that Darline was appointed by the South Carolina governor to carry out the remainder of Lindsey Graham’s time in office after his death in July. However, she now faces a competitive race against Annie Andrews, a paediatrician and the Democratic nominee, in a contest that has become rancorous in recent months.
No budging from the Kremlin as Witkoff visits Putin
My colleague Jakub Krupa over on our Europe live blog is staying abreast of the Witkoff and Putin meeting in St Petersburg.
Trump’s envoy is trying to advocate progress on peace talks after meeting yesterday with Zelenskyy in Norway.
We’re not expecting much though – both sides are still launching daily drone and missile strikes.
The first comments from the Kremlin on the meeting so far say Russia will analyze the US proposals but “much depends on Ukraine” and “if Ukraine does not make necessary decisions, situation for them will be worse.”
As voters struggle with the rising cost of living and gas prices up 45% since the Iran War, Trump on the campaign trail this week has also repeated his $5,000 cash promise to every American adult if the Republicans win the House and Senate.
That’s a $1.2 trillion cash splash. Lawmakers in his own party have questioned where the money will come from while Democrats have called it blatant vote-buying scheme.
The White House says the payments will be funded by foreign trade deals, investment by foreign countries and government shares in private companies and oil and gas.
There’s also scepticism among voters as to whether they’ll actually see the cheque. Some have pointed out that previous government dividends promised by Trump – such as tariff revenues- never materialised. Meanwhile voters are facing rising inflation and a national average price of gas is more than $4 a gallon.
Roughly half of registered voters say Trump does not keep his promises, according to September AP-NORC poll.
Trump hails Russia’s release of US teacher: ‘Stephen is on his way back home’
The US president has just posted on Hubbard’s release, saying: “Welcome home Stephen, it’s great to have you back.”
The statement posted on his Truth Social says the prisoner release was the result of a direct request Trump made to Putin in a telephone call last week.
“Stephen is on his way back home and will soon be with his family,” the statement reads.
The United States, out of respect for President Trump, was not required to give anything in return – an unprecedented situation for Russia.
There was no “swap” necessary for this release. This major return should have taken place long ago through the Biden Administration, which got nowhere in its negotiations with the Kremlin. Stephen is on his way back home.
Russia releases retired school teacher Stephen Hubbard
US envoy Steve Witkoff announced this morning that Russia authorities had freed Stephen Hubbard, the first American known to be convicted of fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine.
Hubbard, who grew up in Michigan, had been living with his Ukrainian wife in the eastern Ukrainian city of Izyum. He was arrested when the Russians briefly took over the city at the start of the war in 2022.
In 2024, he was sentenced to nearly seven years in prison by a Russian court. But he has always denied being involved with any combat or military unit, saying that the Russians just took him from his house.
Trump yesterday had flagged Hubbard’s release saying he’d spoken with Putin in regards to the 74-year-old. “It’s time to have Mr Hubbard back,” he said.
Trump continues midterms campaign blitz in final weeks of election season
Good morning and welcome to our coverage of US politics. With 14 days until the mid-terms, we’re heading into the final straight.
President Donald Trump attended a rally last night in North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper is leading Trump’s pick Michael Whatley by a considerable margin.
Undaunted though, Trump said the pollsters “never poll us right” and he predicted “some amazing results”. He repeated his $5,000 cash “goodie” to voters if Republicans retain control of both the Congress and Senate. He’s got another rally in South Carolina later today.
Overnight he’s also posted on data centers – saying that companies building the energy-intensive sites should pay a “dividend” to the communities where they’re located, including several proposed warehouses in Michigan, where the president will head to on the weekend.
Trump has been pushing rapid AI expansion but in a nod to how unpopular these water and electricity-guzzling centres are with locals who have to live near them, he’s been hinting at community benefits.
Trump said the “new and giant” centers “are mandated by me to make their own electricity , and give or sell any excess back to the local community, or grid”.
Meanwhile US envoy Steve Witkoff is in St Petersburg for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine; some earlier wrangling by Trump has succeeded in the release of US schoolteacher Stephen Hubbard, who was captured by the Russians and accused of having fought for Ukraine.
Stay with us for all the day’s developments.
