A turning point in Donald Trump’s second term will soon arrive. On 3 November, voters across the US will decide whether to keep the president’s Republican allies in control of Congress, or return Democrats to the majority.
Many indicators of voter sentiment suggest the Democrats are favored to take back control of the House of Representatives, and potentially the Senate. Winning either would be a significant victory for the party and give it the power to block Trump’s legislative agenda and more aggressively investigate his administration.
These charts and maps reveal where the battle for Congress will be fought.
Polling shows there has been a nationwide shift towards the Democrats in the run-up to the midterms, even in states Republicans have dominated for decades.
Many recent surveys of the generic ballot, a key indicator of voters’ intent in congressional elections, give the Democrats an edge ranging from the high single digits to the low double digits.
Guardian graphic. Source: Silver Bulletin polling average, which weights individual polls based on sample size, recency and pollster rating
The events of this year – notably the Iran war and its impact on inflation – have undoubtedly changed the race, and much of the advantage seems to have swung towards the Democrats.
Across all key races, Democratic candidates have been campaigning on affordability, at a time when the Trump administration’s actions in the Middle East have pushed up prices, particularly for gasoline and diesel.
It is a reflection of just how concerned US voters are about the economy, rating it as the most important issue in surveys, far ahead of immigration, healthcare or civil rights.
Meanwhile, Trump’s personal ratings have also fallen, with Reuters/Ipsos finding only 32% of US adults now approve of his job performance.
That is worse than his previous low of 34%, recorded by Gallup at the end of his first term in 2021 after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol.
The 2026 midterms may be another brutal reckoning for the US president – the question is whether punishment from voters will lead him to change course.
